A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
